What happened
US officials believe that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is becoming increasingly unlikely. Despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's order for the military to be ready by 2027, several factors have led to this assessment. These include delays in military readiness due to the Chinese Communist Party's anti-corruption campaign and Beijing's interest in the outcome of Taiwan's 2028 election.
According to US officials, China may be waiting to see if the 2028 election in Taiwan brings a government more open to reunification with China. If the current ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party, wins again, China may consider using force in 2028 or later. The US officials also mentioned that China's military preparedness has been impacted by the anti-corruption campaign, which has targeted the military in recent years.
The US intelligence community has previously hinted that China does not have a plan to invade Taiwan next year and still prefers to gain control of the island without using force. The US is Taiwan's most important international backer and weapons supplier, and US officials have mixed views on whether China sees the 2028 US presidential election as a factor in its decision-making on Taiwan.
