What happened
The September jobs report showed the economy added 29,000 new payroll jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. However, a closer look at the report suggests the underlying health of commerce is better than initially thought.
The three-month moving average of job growth remained steady at 51,000 in September, indicating the labor market is strong enough to keep up with population growth and trend unemployment downward.
The overall employment rate is near record highs, with the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers rising to 80.7% in September. This statistic is a better marker of the labor market's health than the unemployment rate, as it includes everyone, not just those actively looking for work.
There are no signs of a looming recession, as the unemployment rate is not rising, and the Sahm Rule, a key recession indicator, is not signaling a recession. Additionally, federal government employment has dropped under the current administration, while construction employment shows few signs of trouble, rising 11,000 in September.
However, manufacturing employment, a sector the current administration has focused on reviving, was up 9,000 in September but is down 21,000 since the administration came into office.
