What happened
A trade war between the US and Canada is affecting several key states with competitive Senate contests in the 2026 midterm elections. According to an analysis by the Advancing American Freedom Foundation, a conservative group, six states - Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas - had a combined $188 billion in trade with Canada over the past 12 months, accounting for more than a quarter of the total $674 billion in annual trade between the two countries.
These states rely heavily on Canada for trade, with Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and New Hampshire depending on Canada for a significant percentage of their annual trade in goods. The trade war has led to retaliatory tariffs from Canada, with the US imposing duties on Canadian goods and Canada responding with tariffs on American goods, including steel, aluminum, and lumber.
The trade war has become a political issue, with Democrats and Republicans taking different stances on the tariffs. Some Republicans, such as Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, have distanced themselves from the White House's tariff regime, citing concerns about the impact on local businesses and families.
The trade war is likely to be a significant issue in the upcoming midterm elections, particularly in states with competitive Senate seats. Democrats need to flip a net of four seats to retake control of the Senate, and the trade war could be a factor in several key races.
