Israel's former Shin Bet head, Ronen Bar, has warned of a possible multi-front war, citing societal divisions as encouraging enemies. This warning was given in a rare appearance before a Knesset subcommittee three weeks before October 7.
What happened
Bar's warning was part of a presentation titled "the perfect storm," which highlighted the erosion of Israel's deterrence due to societal divisions. According to sources, Bar told the subcommittee that the divisions in Israeli society are encouraging its enemies and may lead to a multi-front war.
The warning is not an isolated incident, as Bar had previously alerted the government to the possibility of war. In July 2023, he contacted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and warned him of a potential war. Bar also updated the opposition leader, Yair Lapid, on the warning.
Despite these warnings, it appears that no significant changes were made to Israel's security preparations. Supporters of Netanyahu claimed that the warnings were related to the votes in the Knesset on the judicial revolution and were not taken seriously. However, it is now clear that Bar's warnings were not politically motivated and were based on genuine concerns about the security situation.
The revelation of Bar's warning has sparked a renewed conflict between Netanyahu and Bar, with Netanyahu accusing Bar of "negligence and crimes" and Bar responding by announcing his intention to sue Netanyahu for defamation.