What happened
A recent scheme, referred to as 'Operation Economic Outcast,' aims to economically strangle Iran, potentially leading to state collapse. Even if this plan succeeds, it is unlikely to bring an end to the war in the region.
According to estimates, a portion of the Iranian population, ranging from 15 to 30 percent, remains devoted to the current regime. This could lead to a civil war between hardline remnants of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other elements that may join a new government in Tehran.
Additionally, separatist movements in the Iranian periphery, such as the Kurdish groups Komala and PJAK, may take advantage of the situation to seek independence. This could invite a Turkish military intervention, potentially destabilizing the region further.
The new government in Tehran would face significant challenges, including war with remnants of the old regime, foreign intervention, poverty, and a severely degraded military. The war has become regionalized, with groups like the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah depending on Iran for support, but also having their own resources.
State collapse in Iran would not dissolve these groups overnight, and a new Iranian state would require significant aid to establish stability and territorial integrity. The application of American military power might also be required to quell ongoing conflicts in Yemen and Iraq.
