What happened
Alberta, a Canadian province, is set to hold an election on October 19 to determine its future, including a potential separation from Canada. The ballot will ask voters if they want to launch a constitutional process towards a binding separation referendum. Regional Premier Danielle Smith is campaigning to remain in Canada, but her support is based on economic calculations rather than patriotism.
Alberta is a significant oil producer, pumping over 4.4 million barrels daily, and its separation from Canada could have major implications for the global energy market. The conflict with Iran has driven up oil prices, benefiting Alberta's treasury. A study by the University of Calgary suggests that independence would result in a negligible 2.2% five-year GDP correction.
The US has the opportunity to influence the outcome of the election by offering trade and energy incentives to Alberta. The US Trade Representative could publish a protocol to make Alberta oil tariff-free if the province files for secession. The Energy Department could also execute a diluent-for-heavy swap to solidify the alliance between the US and Alberta.
The Pentagon and Edmonton could also execute a Prairie-Arctic protocol to anchor continental security. This would involve deploying a NORAD interceptor node at Cold Lake, securing priority access to gas, and designating sovereign Alberta as a Major Non-NATO Ally.
